Sepsis mortality reduction
The story flipped between 2014 and 2025. Earlier meta-analyses (Wu 2014; Li 2015) pooled small Chinese RCTs and reported a roughly 30-40% relative risk reduction in 28-day mortality. The 1106-patient TESTS Phase 3 trial (Liu 2025) showed essentially no difference (hazard ratio 0.99), reframing the body of evidence as small-trial bias overstating an effect that doesn't survive a properly powered trial.
6 human studies · 4 animal studies
Key findings & citations
- TESTS Phase 3 (n=1106): 28-day all-cause mortality 23.4% vs 24.1% placebo, HR 0.99 (95% CI 0.77-1.27).
- Earlier ETASS (2013, n=361) suggested mortality benefit but was underpowered relative to TESTS.
- Pre-TESTS meta-analyses (Wu 2014, n=1480) reported pooled RR 0.68 — now considered overstated.
Our take
Older meta-analyses said it worked. The Phase 3 said it didn't. Trust the Phase 3 — that's how science is supposed to update.